Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee have been bumped from the main stage at next week's GOP presidential debate, while George Pataki and Lindsey Graham have been cut from the lineup altogether.
Debate sponsor Fox Business
Network announced the moves Thursday evening, dealing a major blow to
all four candidates, particularly Christie, the New Jersey governor, and
Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, as they struggled to stand out in
the crowded Republican field amid signs of momentum in states where the
first primary contests will be held.
The
decision underscores concerns about the pivotal role that national
opinion surveys have been playing in shaping the contest for the GOP
nomination. Statistically, pollsters say, there is no significant
difference between candidates lumped together near the bottom of the
pack in national polls, which often have a margin of error of 3
percentage points or more.
"I
tell people, 'Ignore the national polls and just follow those early
states,'" said Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who argues that early
opinion surveys are notoriously unreliable. "Except that now national
polls drive the debates, and debates drive the polling."
According
to debate criteria issued by Fox Business, candidates must score 2.5
percent or higher in an average of the four most recent major polls
conducted through Nov. 4 to be featured in the prime-time debate. They
must hit the 1 percent mark to qualify for an undercard debate airing
before the main event.
As a
result of the new standards, the prime-time affair will feature eight
candidates — the smallest lineup so far. Ten candidates were featured in
the party's opening primetime debate in August.
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